Are we fixing fundamentals, or just pretending?

A video response by Michael McGee to the 2009 Davos Question about the environment:

"Will the environment lose out to the economy in 2009?"

 
 
 
 
Summary
 

Early in 2008, science gave humanity a target for getting the concentrations of atmospheric CO2 back to safe levels. Unless we're moving toward that target, we're not solving global warming and climate change.

In January 2009, this short video was made to shed direct light on the reality of our environmental challenges, the short-comings of the responses so far, and steps that are essential for getting on track.

But the video isn't just about the environment. It's about restoring health to the world economy, and boosting its capacity to support human development for generations to come.

 
 
 
@ The Davos Debates 2009
 

This video was created as a response to the 2009 Davos Question about the environment and economy: “Will the environment lose out to the economy in 2009?” More than 250 videos were entered into the 2009 Davos Debates contest that was hosted by YouTube and the World Economic Forum.

Here are the modest achievements of Are we fixing fundamentals, or just pretending?:

More "Davos" Links:

WEForum | Webcasts from sessions in Davos
WEForum - TMINo | Webcast: Rising to the challenge in Copenhagen
WEForum | 2009 World Economic Forum
WEForum | YouTube and MySpace video contest winners
YouTube | 2009 Davos Debates
YouTube | 2008 Davos Question
YouTube | Michael McGee’s response to the 2009 Davos environmental question
YouTube | Michael McGee’s response to the 2008 Davos Question

 
 
 
More info about the video
 
 
Excerpts from the video

“When did atmospheric CO2 rise the fastest? Since the Kyoto Protocol was signed. We have climate treaties to stabilize CO2 in the atmosphere. But the treaties have no atmospheric targets. And as for atmospheric results, CO2 has never been further from stabilization. Our climate treaties could be great, but they’re letting us down. It’s time we put an atmospheric target at the centre of our climate and economic policies. It’s time to get talking about the most important number on the planet.....”

“Science says 350 parts per million is the upper limit for safe concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere. This is the atmospheric target humanity needs to aim for. In the past eight months, people and even countries have started to promote 350 as a climate target....a hopeful trend that anyone can support simply by adding their voice.”

“You’re looking the problem straight in the eye. It’s not cars or light bulbs, furnaces or air conditioners. It’s not coal miners, oil executives or the tar sands. The main problem is what I’m doing right now...freely and lawfully...I’m using fossil fuels for energy.”
 
 
 
 
 
350: A story with legs
 

“This is a story with legs. With 350 as a shared target,
people of all backgrounds can arrive at
the same destination, faster than anyone imagined.”

 

In 2008, the major development related to atmospheric CO2 came from the scientific community. Dr. James Hansen of NASA and nine other scientists (in 3 countries) published this ground-breaking paper: Target atmospheric CO2: Where should humanity aim? Here is there conclusion:

"If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm." [SafeCO2.org]

Al Gore, Nobel Laureate, when speaking at the UN Climate Conference in Poznan, Poland, on December 12, 2008:

"The truth is that the goals we are reaching toward are incredibly difficult, and even a goal of 450 parts per million, which seems so difficult today, is inadequate. We will soon need to toughen that goal to 350 parts per million." [AlGore.com]

US Senator John Kerry, speaking on January 13, 2009, during Senate confirmation hearings for Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State:

"...scientists have now revised the levels of supportable greenhouse gas emissions from 550 parts per million to 450 to now 350...So our challenge is going to be even greater than it was five months ago, Senator, or two months ago. The perception that we can kind of creep at this and perhaps do something this year, notwithstanding our economy, is foolhardy...I know that the president-elect has said he's going to focus on it. But I'm not sure that everybody coming into the administration is completely aware of what a big lift this is going to be and how imperative it is that we make Copenhagen a success." [NY Times]

In the United States, the president-elect is now president. As of yet, he has articulated no target for atmospheric CO2. But in his inaugural address on January 20, 2009, the President of the United States said that his administration would "restore science to its rightful place," and he said this:

"We will harness the sun and the winds and the soil to fuel our cars and run our factories."  [Whitehouse]

These types of commitments align perfectly with a science-based target of 350 ppm. When I made "Are we fixing fundamentals, or just pretending?" I was worried that we were pretending more than making the fixes that would last for decades and generations. The worry remains, but already my hope is on the rise. More leaders are beginning to confront the brutal facts (to borrow the phrase from Jim Collins, author of Good to Great) and get us closer to the pathway that pushes CO2 back toward 350 parts per million.

Here is an excerpt from US Congressional hearings on January 28, 2009:

CHAIRMAN KERRY: We are cushioned between the tipping point that scientists have warned us of, the two degrees centigrade and we have to achieve 350 ppm which is the goal that most scientists believe will result in stability, is that correct?

MR. GORE: That is the goal that I support, and that is my reading of what I believe is the best science. I think that an accurate picture of the science is that leading researchers like Professor Jim Hansen, like Dr. Jim Hansen at NASA have now begun to coalesce around the strong feeling that 350 is the appropriate goal. After years of debate within an international political framework other scientists have despaired about the ability of the political system to do what the science mandates and have coalesced around 450, some even 550, but the more the evidence comes in the more it becomes increasingly apparent that 350 is the appropriate goal. If we are at 386 now and the entire north polar ice cap is completely melting in five years and both Greenland and Antarctica are at risk, obviously we need to be below the level we are at now. [Senate.gov | 350.org]

The video advocates for putting an atmospheric CO2 target of 350 at the centre of our environmental and economic policies. It also talks about the scale of what is needed to acheive that. The good news is that support for this new idea is growing at the political level...not just in the United States but in Europe, in the least developed countries, and at the grassroots level.

 
 
 
 

Chart of the current trend for atmospheric CO2